After three destroyers were capsized and nine other ships seriously damaged due to Typhoon Cobra in 1944, Admiral Chester Nimitz wrote: "Nothing is more dangerous than to allow a seaman to begrudge taking precautions because they might turn out to have been unnecessary. Take all measures for a ship's safety while you're still able to do so.

Most colleges have not yet drafted plans to address the unexpected and the unimaginable that may occur during an Avian Flu pandemic. Only 15 percent of large U.S. companies have bird-flu plans, reports a March survey by human resources consultant Watson Wyatt Worldwide.

But that is changing, perhaps as a result of press reports like this one on May 2 from Reuters. "Authorities have discovered a mild form of avian influenza at a live bird market in New Jersey, but it is not the deadly H5N1 strain governments around the world are trying to contain, the state's agriculture department said…"

As with hurricane preparedness, the recent words of John Cavanaugh, President of the University of West Florida have applicability to avian flu. Addressing an audience at the annual meeting of the Association of Governing Boards in April Cavanaugh said, "We have learned that when you are doing emergency planning, you'd better consider the unimaginable. For example, we were pennywise and pound foolish when we didn't invest in satellite phones before the hurricanes."

Absenteeism is a principal issue

According to USA Today, Corning started its corporate pandemic preparedness team in mid-2005. Best Buy has a bird flu team under orders to report to company leadership by October. Mutual of Omaha's plan includes flexible hours to reduce the population in its buildings. Buildings may need frequent sterilization, and larger meeting rooms, while employee-to-employee personal contact may be curtailed, reported USA Today.

The World Health Organization (WHO) predicts absenteeism could climb above 40 percent and last for weeks. According to USA Today, Boeing is trying to determine if it can operate with 30 percent of its 160,000 employees out. U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt says 92 million Americans could become sick. "Social distancing" is now a planning consideration for Avian Flu, and telecommuting is one such option.

According to World Bank estimates, the most serious scenarios suggest a global economy loss of $1 trillion. It's all far from certain. Only 205 confirmed human cases of bird flu have been reported at this writing, and they are in Asia.

College blueprint for pandemic response

To help colleges and universities begin preparing for a flu pandemic, Arthur J. Gallagher Risk Management Services, Inc. published a Blueprint for Pandemic Flu Preparedness Planning for Colleges and Universities. The Gallagher organization is the world's fourth largest insurance broker and a risk management service provider to numerous colleges and universities.

"We engage clients and non-clients in the identification and management of emerging risks," says AJG spokesperson Leta Finch. Gallagher has put personnel from the Center for Disease Control and state health departments together with higher education risk managers, lawyers, and health care providers to develop the Blueprint.

In 50 pages and two sections, college personnel are guided through preparedness and recovery planning. Topics include governance, command and control, risk assessment, legal and ethical issues - and more. Response and recovery are addressed in phases, escalating and de-escalating as the pandemic works its way through the community.

Some interventions may affect human behavior and human rights. A very recent 228-page draft federal government report suggests that colleges should consider whether their dormitories could be used to house or quarantine the sick.

And the inevitable decision to shut down or remain open must be addressed, perhaps more than once. Exactly who will be making that decision?

Bob Maurer is executive editor of The Greentree Gazette and past president of the New York Higher Education Services Corporation. Reach him at rmaurer@greentreegazette.com.